Negotiation Simulator
Pricing alone isn’t a negotiation strategy. You need to know where the buyer walks, where you walk, and where the zone of agreement sits. The simulator combines rNPV base valuation + counterparty historical premium + licensor BATNA to compute ZOPA and a recommended opening.
AbbVie offering for Phase 3 immunology
Atopic dermatitis, $2B peak, clinical-stage biotech licensor
Single-asset clinical-stage biotech with 14-month cash runway — needs meaningful upfront to reach next inflection.
$200M funds 2 years of Phase 3 spend + buffer; below this, continuing standalone is economically preferred.
Based on 51 disclosed deals (high confidence). Full playbook
Zone of Possible Agreement
Suggested approach
- Open at $766M — anchors ~15% above buyer’s typical ceiling to create room for counter-offer.
- Prepared to accept $433M — ZOPA midpoint, leaves upside for buyer psychology.
- Walk below $200M — BATNA floor. Below this, the alternative path (standalone, different partner) wins.
Pfizer offering for Phase 2 oncology ADC
HER2+ breast cancer, $1.5B peak, mid-biotech licensor
Mid-cap biotech with 3 programs; this asset is #2 priority. Will retain if upfront does not exceed opportunity cost of in-house Phase 3.
Phase 3 self-funding feasible at ~$150M opportunity cost (out-of-pocket + shareholder dilution risk).
Based on 23 disclosed deals (high confidence). Full playbook
Zone of Possible Agreement
Suggested approach
- Open at $505M — anchors ~15% above buyer’s typical ceiling to create room for counter-offer.
- Prepared to accept $295M — ZOPA midpoint, leaves upside for buyer psychology.
- Walk below $150M — BATNA floor. Below this, the alternative path (standalone, different partner) wins.
Gilead offering for Phase 3 HIV combo
HIV, $1B peak, small biotech licensor (single-program)
Single-asset biotech with clinical-ready data but no commercial infrastructure. Licensing is the primary path to market.
Below $100M, shareholder calculus tips toward holding the asset and running a smaller combo study with a partner.
Based on 34 disclosed deals (high confidence). Full playbook
Zone of Possible Agreement
Suggested approach
- Open at $516M — anchors ~15% above buyer’s typical ceiling to create room for counter-offer.
- Prepared to accept $275M — ZOPA midpoint, leaves upside for buyer psychology.
- Walk below $100M — BATNA floor. Below this, the alternative path (standalone, different partner) wins.
How ZOPA is computed
Step 1 — Engine base. Run calculateRNPV() on the asset profile. The implied upfront (median of the low / median / high range) is the “neutral” price a buyer paying peer-median premium would offer.
Step 2 — Counterparty adjustment. Multiply the engine base by the buyer’s historical premium from the counterparty playbook. Result: the upfront this specific buyer is likely to offer given their pattern across N disclosed deals.
Step 3 — Licensor floor (BATNA). Your walk-away point. Set by cash-runway math: below this number, the alternative (standalone, different partner, holding the asset) is economically preferred. This is the one input the engine cannot compute — it’s a strategic choice the licensor must bring to the table.
Step 4 — ZOPA width. Buyer ceiling − licensor floor. Positive = agreement possible. Negative = no overlap; the deal either doesn’t close or requires restructuring (co-development shifts cash-now to retained upside, for example).
Step 5 — Opening ask. 15% above the buyer’s ceiling creates room for counter-offer without anchoring too high (which risks the buyer walking). The fallback is the ZOPA midpoint — fair, defensible, leaves buyer psychology intact.